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Post by MDempsey on Sept 25, 2014 18:34:04 GMT
Thanks Paul!
JR makes a valid point here. I am still wondering about execution and man power. Have they hired any engineers? Are any of their employees actually experienced in developing and managing such projects?
Moreover, what do we know about the profitability and revenue potential of such projects? As far as I know the equity value they ask for in the current round is around $1bn. I assume that's a hell lot of projects you need to bring in to justify that kind of valuation given that the projects appear quite small.
Do we know which banks they are in contact with for financing the projects and also which ones are they talking to with regard to their IPO? Wasn't there JPMorgan involved a few years back before the SEC ruling came out? Are they still in talks with JPM or has the relationship soured?
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Post by Paul on Sept 25, 2014 18:47:06 GMT
JR-Your frustration is understandable, however I do disagree with your assessment, your still consumed with the past, you need to look more towards the future.
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Post by JR on Sept 25, 2014 19:06:50 GMT
Ok, well looking forward...
Based on assumptions that you are certainly welcome to correct:
$80,000,000 in capital has been raised (I'm guessing less than 10% of that remains. Which isn't really relevant, as it's the past, other than the fact there will be significant finance costs associated with running the business going forward if they have to borrow money)
The Scuderi family has ~65% ownership (this is a huge assumption, so please update with actuals if you know)
Therefore, the Scuderi's need to have ~$1.5 billion in sales with a 15% profit margin on every bit of that, in order for the investor base as a whole to recieve their investment back. This is a simple calc that doesn't factor in the time value of money or anything. This also doesn't mean that everyone would get every dollar of their investment back, because of the splits that have occurred, but those sales and that margin would be required to raise $80 million in profit that can be returned to investors.
I'm not sure what their timeline is on $1.5 billion in sales...
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Post by Guest on Sept 25, 2014 19:26:06 GMT
Why don't you attend a webinar and ask that question directly, JR?
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Post by SSharp on Sept 25, 2014 19:35:46 GMT
JR, I agree to your comments. Given the fact that there is no reliable financial information (audited financials) and a running class action suit the probability to see more than 10% on our investment can be considered a statistical outlier. I see the chances at around 0.0001%.
The Scuderis in the beginning were from the very beginning incapable of running the company (and especially the development program). Criticism was not allowed at any time. Then they thought that taking some money out for themselves would not make any difference having soon billions of $ on the company account. And as the financial resources got scarce besides lack of success in the automotive they created misleading IR statements in order to just continue the company as long as possible. I am pretty sure that the PPAs will be of no value at all because they will not be able to deliver any engine.
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Post by Paul on Sept 25, 2014 20:01:38 GMT
JR-Bad example, that has nothing to do with the share price, Why do you think Tesla has a market cap of 30.83 Billion dollars on continued losses and weak sales? Why do you think Solar City with revenue of 161 million and losses of 149 million have a market cap of close to 7 billion dollars? As you said yourself the SG will most likely have revenue and we have heard at the webinars the margins for the conventional engine projects will be in the 23% range. I think the SG equity story including the split cycle technology is much more compelling than Solar City your numbers totally make no sense.
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Post by Paul on Sept 25, 2014 20:06:04 GMT
SSharp-Your lost too, please attend a webinar and be brought up to date, your last sentence could not be further from the truth.
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Post by Paul on Sept 25, 2014 20:11:56 GMT
I'm going on a sabbatical for a little while, I wish everybody well even if they want to punch me in the head sometimes. LOL!
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Post by Guest #999 on Sept 25, 2014 20:25:52 GMT
JR-Bad example, that has nothing to do with the share price, Why do you think Tesla has a market cap of 30.83 Billion dollars on continued losses and weak sales? Why do you think Solar City with revenue of 161 million and losses of 149 million have a market cap of close to 7 billion dollars? As you said yourself the SG will most likely have revenue and we have heard at the webinars the margins for the conventional engine projects will be in the 23% range. I think the SG equity story including the split cycle technology is much more compelling than Solar City your numbers totally make no sense. Tesla and Solar City have Elon Musk. For every one of Musk's huge successes Sal Scuderi has a bankruptcy. Elon Musk is the opposite of Sal Scuderi. SG will be discounted accordingly.
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Post by JR on Sept 25, 2014 20:32:41 GMT
My illustration assumes they are not going public which is the reality we live in now. Their is nothing about their business model, their organization, or them as individuals that is unique enough to add enough value for anyone to want to invest in them on the public markets.
I said it's possible they will have revenue.
If it was possible to jump into this market, finance your operations, and still turn 23% margins, everyone would be doing it. If it was possible to jump into this market with sufficient funds to not have to finance, and return 23% on your investment, everyone would be doing it.
Let's assume for a moment that the Scuderi's can. That does not mean that just becuase they are turning 23% margin that suddenly this journey becomes a good investment for us the investors. Obviously it's better than nothing, and since we've committed to this thing, something is better than nothing. But our ownership is so so diluted at this point, that the Scuderi's can run a very successful business in the power generation and storage market and you'll still never see all of your initial investment back. They'd still need over a billion in sales at 23% just to return investors their initial investment. It's even more unlikely they'll have Billions in sales to make this a good return on investment.
While everyone defines a good return differently, I'll say that I don't see getting my initial investment back 20-30 years later a good investment.
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Post by Guest on Sept 25, 2014 21:11:00 GMT
"For every one of Musk's huge successes Sal Scuderi has a bankruptcy."
Let's see you come up with the facts and details on that. You will not be able to.
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Post by Guest on Sept 25, 2014 22:12:29 GMT
Sal: Engineering and Sales, Thermaflo, Prime Equities, Steel Panel Foundations, Scuderi Group
Elon: Zip2, Paypal, Tesla, SpaceX, Solar City
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Post by Guest on Sept 25, 2014 23:16:58 GMT
Engineering and Sales merged into ThermaFlo. Michael Fioretti was president, taking over from Carmelo Scuderi. When the business closed (not sure of that status) Sal hadn't been with them for well over a year. He was never the president. None of those other companies have been through bankruptcy, so your point is moot. (Or did you mean to be deliberately defamatory?)
Some of those companies of Musk you mention could, by no means, be considered successes.
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Post by Car Guy on Sept 25, 2014 23:31:36 GMT
Anyone hear a pin drop out there?
I, for one, look forward to the day when all of you naysayers have to admit you're wrong. Think of it! You are allegedly up against consortiums which we've been told would involve world renown universities! PPA's, MOU's, NDA's!!! Mexican casinos! Puerto Rico nursing homes! Central Massachusetts Developers!! Supermarkets!!!
Not to mention...duh...the basement system? Hello?
We're good folks. We are good.
Nothing to see here. Move along. Move along.
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Post by Mike on Sept 26, 2014 1:09:45 GMT
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